The Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR) has raised its baseline forecast for this year’s wheat harvest in Russia by 2 million tons, to 87 million tons. “We have a wide fork in the estimates – from 84 million to 90 million tons. But the base forecast is now 87 million tons against the previous one of 85 million tons,” IKAR Director General Dmitry Rylko told Interfax.

According to him, the increase is due to the fact that sown areas under spring wheat will be larger than expected. “In addition, the weather in the Urals and Siberia has stabilized. There was a threat there, but for the coming weeks it has passed,” Rylko said. – And favorable weather conditions are developing for the center and the Volga region. All this has added quite seriously to the crop estimate and will level out the reduction of the harvest in the south”.

Rylko explained that ICAR has lowered the wheat harvest estimate in the two southern federal districts mainly because dry winds have been blowing there for two weeks. “And, according to forecasts, they will continue to blow for several more days. This is very bad for crops,” he explained.

The forecast for grain harvest in the whole of the Russian Federation has increased by 2 million tons, to 133.5 million tons.

Rylko also said that the estimate of Russia’s wheat export potential for the new crop year (July 2022-June 2023) has been raised to 41 million tons against the previous 39 million tons. Export potential for grain in general is forecasted at 52 million tons.